However, the “Recession p$&n” view is worthy. What our press like to report and what is really happening is not necessarily the same thing. The car market is a similar barometer to property, and despite all and sundry in the press telling us now is the best ever time to buy a new car, the dealers disagree, as they don’t have any stock. For example, trying to buy a new Holden V8 is something that will be very difficult to do before March. A Holden yes, but also a V8 – hardly a sign that people are concerned about their cash. Therefore, very much mixed messages, which suggests, despite the lessons of history, we have a range of conflicting economic indicators. And that in turn suggests no-one really knows what is happening, let alone our fearless (???!!!??) political leaders.

The BIGGEST problem (that may be the biggest pressure on people) is that they did OR didn’t build up their WAR CHEST when the good times did occur, and hence should be in a great environment right now. These are cleansing times, and not worth worrying about unless you are buying or selling. If you are simply owning a property – get on with it and get over it. If you are buying, good luck to you – if you are selling – good luck to you to because you are probably also buying UP. I don’t see a downside frankly – except for the prescious few who take more pride in the equity balance sheet than the actual effort required to get there.

My rant for the day. Good points above though, bar the doomsday thoughts. What is doomsday to one is another ones heaven.

Cheers

Gavin

Your overview clearly does this .

The year ahead will be tough with the smart money seeking opportunities .

Dyson Austen Valuers

Sadly, that’s because the standard of government services and infrastructure here has been going down the gurgler for years, so we were nearer the bottom to start with. . .

Evidence of this is the abundant oversupply of new, medium density housing sitting on the Pacific Highway. We were lead to believe this would fill overnight. It clearly has not happened and the ratio of inhabitants:dwellings will continue to decline. I don’t see families camping on the street either.

Liquid assets required to fund a deposit were typically invested in the share market, so I don’t envision too many people sitting on an idle $600,000 of cash to fund a 20% deposit on a $3M property. Bonus pools have disappeared, as have the profligate wages of bankers. Tighter bank servicing ratios mean lesser debt available. Forget about bridging finance to finance the mass of Mosman properties on the market.

The result is a gaping hole in the very thin bid (expecting a deflationary spiral) and an increasingly restless offer (gasping for cash, starting to lose jobs, pull kids out of private schools etc).

The result, in my humble opinion, is a likely massive write down in property values. 20 million Britons are living with negative equity. Australia’s turn now. Could be worse…Mosman could be WA.