Comments on: The first six months of 2009 will be hard (not necessarily harder) and I believe the next six months will see a mild rebound leading to much stronger property markets!

By: Dave B

Dave B — Tue, 16 Dec 2008 03:22:30 +0000

We’re all guilty of talking our own book; you have no option but to be positive about prices and eventually you’ll be right. Eventually stockbrokers will pick a bull market again but that is probably after being wrong for 10 years.

The fact is that Australia is heading south and no, we’re not protected by Comrade China who too is heading south. Unemployment will follow broader trends but will be perhaps accentuated in Australia due to its disproportionate mining and associated, over brokered equity markets.

Finally, Australians have a very nasty habit of not having any cash. Where are the big 30% deposits coming from for the purchase of these properties? Liquidating share portfolios? Don’t think so.

My prediction is that property prices will eventually rebound some day. In the meantime, why won’t we see the 50% declines that other, less geared markets are bracing themselves for?

Dave

By: Gordon Frend

Gordon Frend — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 07:54:24 +0000

Next year will be tougher than we have seen for a while, and not just in real estate. In quality markets like MCNB the visible result is more likely to be a reluctance by vendors to accept lower prices, rather than any dramatic fall in values. So as we are already seeing, properties will be on the market for much longer but it seems unlikely there will be a major move to lower prices.

Subject to the usual snafu by the pollies, of course. The corrupt and bankrupt NSW (No Sense Whatever) government has 14 years of form in snatching defeat from the jaws of victory, and Krudd737 on his occasional visits to Australia has spent all the Howard/Costello surplus and is now well into the national credit card. Stand by for another multibillion sling to the true believers next year followed by an early election before the punters wake up.

By: Paul G

Paul G — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 00:35:38 +0000

Oh and happy new year and merry Christmas to all at RWM and also to all the readers.

By: Paul G

Paul G — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 00:34:56 +0000

I think the markets will come back. Not a massive jump in prices but a steadying of the ship so to speak. I also think governments will move strongly in the new year. Look at Tasmania, where the state government is offering $50,000 to first home buyers with a 10% deposit, payable back after 15 years.

There will be real incentives in the market next year, not for investors, but definitely for the average Joe.

By: Robert Simeon

Robert Simeon — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 00:30:40 +0000

Actually – I am not talking it up I am making a prediction (as you have). One of us is wrong and it will be interesting to see who is right and who is wrong. At least we are prepared to discuss what is happening in our markets and we are more than happy for debate

By: J Lawson

J Lawson — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 00:24:39 +0000

Why is it that the ONLY people that talk up the real estate market are agents. Get over it. The market is getting hammered, we are going into a multi-year recession, and prices are going to come down way way more. This whole thing has been a bubble in the making and it has now burst. get used to it. Stop fighting it. Prices are down for a reason. Australia was only living off a commodity boom that has now bust. China is now not something we can cling to. Combine that with the credit market bust and you have a massive deflationary storm in the making.