Comments on: 2008 housing values have moved and in 2009 we expect them to……?

By: stephen patrick

stephen patrick — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 01:45:58 +0000

Thanks to Michael,Stephen and Gordon for their comments, we learn a lot from your feedback ,and appreciate the time you put in. Excellet feed back on those down cycles!
I look forward to future ideas and corresspondance.

By: Robert Simeon

Robert Simeon — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 23:21:28 +0000

Steve,

Thanks for sharing your thoughts and stats – some scary data there. As each day goes by we are one day closer to climbing out of this disaster.

Best regards to both you and Victoria, your website looks great

By: MIchael Noonan

MIchael Noonan — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 10:40:31 +0000

Stephen, how right can a man be! It seems the ‘top end’ of town have been telling us how it is and will be for too long.

How the tide has turned. We in the market, know that respect is hard earned. I would prefer 100 x over to trust my instincts rather than some analyst that has never been at the coalface.

Yes, times will improve, but this is a new world order, we invest (my wife and I) in good times and bad, but we invest for returns long term.

Just about every ‘advisor’ gets their returns short term and so I listen to my inner ‘voice’, that talks to me from over 30 years of market experience.

I have not seen a market like this in my lifetime, but I do know one thing, that is to never panic, invest securely, take my time and listen to everyone and trust only the ones that do not profit from their advice…..oh….and take snippets of that advice….that will help me long term.

Love the new format

By: Gordon

Gordon — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 10:21:42 +0000

It is clear we really need governments to show their hand and provide a stimulus to developers to get into it! The Mosman and Neutral Bay Property Market (well, the whole Sydney Real Estate Market) needs to get a top down involvement, property prices declining is not the problem.

It is what Richard and Stephen allude to in their statements that we all must be realistic in our market assumptions. We all need to be leaders, we cannot simply sit back and see what happens, we need leadership from agents, developers, investors, and all sectors of government.

I for one as an investor am waiting for someone to put their hand up. Yes, I have made some and lost some over the years, but I always turn to property, especially in tumultuous times. It has what has made me a long term investor and known locally for this.

It is just now I want to see what all levels are prepared to do now, instead of watching from the sidelines.

PS: Love the fact I can contribute on your site now Stephen !!!

By: peter maccormick

peter maccormick — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 09:26:37 +0000

Good to see a well researched comment on the general mosman market if you listen to the typical blonde Mosman coffee set the WHOLE OF MOSMAN IS A WASH WITH PROPERTY !! and nothing is selling. My view is of a similar nature to the R and W boys with one exception and that is thanks to the NSW governments forward planning and their new higher property tax we see VERY FEW NEW DEVELOPMENTS IN THE NEXT 18 MONTHS. This will result in a further shortage of apartments and housing. What ever properties are being developed in Mosman now there will be none in the future so its a good time to take stock and see what can be purchased.

By: Steve McCarthy

Steve McCarthy — Fri, 21 Nov 2008 09:12:05 +0000

It would be very difficult to make any call or comment on current market conditions, things could go either way, but in any event many, many people have, are or will be severely affected.
Below for aficionados of the Stock Market is a overview of the S&P (it’s a waste of time talking about what the DOW does or does not do)
As your readers will see from the information below each is an each way bet. (As an aside some $760 Billion has been lost in the Australian Share Market so far, $US30 Trillion World Wide)
The S&P 500 Index began in 1950. Many journalists refer to the recent performance by the S&P 500 Index as the worst performance since the Great Depression. It is the worst calendar year performance of the USA stock market since the Great Depression, but the journalists and so-called experts are mixing up their indices.

In any case there are only two calendar year periods since 1950 where the S&P 500 index has fallen for more than one year in a row.
The two periods are 1973-1974 and 2000-2002.
Other than for these two periods the S&P 500 Index has only fallen for one year, with the single worst performance being a fall of 14.31% in 1957.

The market falls in 1973-1974 and 2000-2002 periods were as follows:

Period 1 1973 -17.37% 1974 -29.72% Total -47.09% Oil quadrupled from about USD 3.00 to USD 12.00.

Period 2 2000 -10.14% 2001 -13.04% 2002 -23.37% Total -46.55% Dotcom crash.

The S&P 500 Index was 1468.36 as at 31/12/07, and closed last night at 752.44. Thus the calendar year decline to date is 45.07%.

For interest the S&P 500 Index reached an all-time high of 1565 in 2007. Thus the decline to date from the all-time high is 48.46%.

Who knows where the S&P 500 Index will actually bottom, but if the last 60 years or so mean anything, maybe the bottom is not far away.

In the Great Depression, from the stock market peak in October 1929, as measured by the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, to when the same index bottomed on July 8, 1932, the USA stock market fell 89%. I hope that history is not going to repeat itself.

But here is my point, with the amount of money Governments are throwing at the World economies, we will either see the biggest share and asset run in history in the next 6-9 months,
Or alternatively most of us will be wiped out financially. The 50/50 each way bet will make dining out stories for the next 10 years, either way!

Cheers Steve